Example: quiz answers

Economic performance of the airline industry - IATA

Economic performance of the airline industry Mid-year 2017 update Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics

Information

Domain:

Source:

Link to this page:

Please notify us if you found a problem with this document:

Other abuse

Text of Economic performance of the airline industry - IATA

Economic performance of the airline industry Mid-year 2017 update Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA Performance drivers are now diverging Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst and Markit 4042444648505254-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%20 1220132014201520162017Index, 50 = no change in output% change over previous yearAirlines unit cost growth and global business confidenceGlobal business confidenceAirlines' unit cost growthReturn on capital performance good in 2016 Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%201020112012 2013201420152016EBIT adjusted for operating leases as % invested capitalReturn on invested capitalIndustry averageNorth AmericaEuropeAsia PacificLatin AmericaMiddleEastWeighted Average Cost 2016 free cash flow good but more divergent Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst -10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%20102011201220 13201420152016FCF as % invested capitalFree cash flow yield (% invested capital)North AmericaIndustry averageAsia PacificLatin AmericaEuropeMiddle EastDebt still ranges from investment grade to weak Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst 0123456782010201120122013201420152016Deb t adjusted for operating leases/EBITDARAdjusted net debt/EBITDARLatin AmericaAsia PacificIndustry averageEuropeNorth AmericaMiddleEastInvestment gradeOperating margins still high but declining Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst and airline releases -2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%201120122013 2014201520162017% revenuesAirline industry operating margin, % revenuesMargins adjusted for seasonalityUnadjusted marginsAs margins squeezed by accelerating costs Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst -20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%201120122013 2014201520162017% change over previous yearUnit revenues and unit costs, % change over previous yearUnit cost growthUnit revenue growthCost acceleration driven by fuel, MRO, labour Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst cents/ASMCASM 2016Q1 to 2017Q1Signs of a stabilization of yields Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst and Markit 8082848688909294969810048495051525354201 4201520162017Index of fares, constant FXBusiness confidence 50 = neutralWorldwide average fares (constant FX) and business confidenceBusiness confidenceAverage returnfare index, constant FXFinancial markets and airline CFOs are confident Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Business Confidence survey and Thompson Reuters Datastream 0102030405060708090100 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1,050 1,150 1,250 1,350201220132014201520162017CFO expectations of airline profits in 12 months, 50 = no changeGlobal airline share price indexAirline share prices and CFO expectations of airline profitabilityAirline share pricesCFO expectations for change in profits in next 12 monthsWe ve upgraded our forecasts for 2017 Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, Mid-year 2017 and End-year 2016 reports yieldsRPKsFreight tonnesASKsOperatingmarginsPercentage change or % revenuesForecast revisions for 2017Previous forecastCurrent forecastAir travel has started the year strongly Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics and Markit 3035404550556065-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%12%16%20 0720082009201020112012201320142015201620 17% year-on-yearDiffusion indicesGrowth in industry RPKs (LHS)Global manufacturing PMI index (adv. 2 months, RHS)Global services PMI index (adv. 2 months, RHS)Strong growth in domestic markets Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics 2017Mar 2017Domestic revenue passenger kilometres (% year-on-year)IndustryDomestic RussiaDomestic IndiaDomestic ChinaDomestic JapanDomestic USADomestic BrazilDom. AustraliaLoad factors (mostly) at all-time highs Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics All-time lowAll-time highIndustryEuropeN. AmericaL. AmericaAsia PacificMiddle EastAfrica50%60%70%80%90%Apr 2017Apr 2016Passenger load factors (% of available seat kms, seasonally adjusted) freight rebound driven by re-stocking Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics and Thompson Reuters Datastream -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20 %30%40%200520062007200820092010201120122 0132014201520162017Global FTKs (LHS)Inventory to sales ratio (RHS, inverted scale)% year-on-yearYear-on-year change*Rolling 3 month periodsFall in inventory to sales ratio,increase in FTK growthBreakeven point rising but so are load factors Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, Mid-year 2017 report 5557596163656769199419961998200020022004 200620082010201220142016% ATKsBreakeven and achieved weight load factorsAchievedBreakevenReturn on capital lower but still good in 2017 Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, Mid-year 2017 report of invested capitalReturn on capital invested in airlinesCost of capital (WACC)Return on capital (ROIC)2017 profits down but upgraded Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, Mid-year 2017 report 0246810-10-50510152025303540200920102011 201220132014201520162017% revenuesUS$ billionNet profits and operating marginsNet profits - currentNet profits - previousOperating margin - currentOperating margin - previousRegional divergence in profitability remains Source: IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry, Mid-year 2017 report -2024681012141618-1%1%3%5%7%9%N AmericaEuropeAsia PacificL AmericaMiddle EastAfricaUS$ billion% revenuesNet profits by region in 2017Net profits% revenues

Related search results